????高科技领域的“聪明钱”将退出市场

????凡是目睹过硅谷兴衰周期的人都知道，萧条即将来临。当没有任何收入的Snapchat拒绝Facebook公司开出的数十亿美元报价，当Twitter和商务社交网站LinkedIn的交易价数倍于它们各自微不足道的营收额，当Salesforce.com效仿甲骨文公司为迎接年度用户大会而大张旗鼓地封闭旧金山数个街区的时候，人们就该明白，泡沫的破灭之日已经不远了。精明的投资者往往会在这个时候一窝蜂地跑向相反的方向。

????概率: 58%。

????Tech's smart money will exit

????Anyone who has seen Silicon Valley's boom-bust cycles before knows there's a bust on the way. When pre-revenue Snapchat (see our feature story) turns down a multibillion-dollar buyout offer from Facebook (FB, Fortune 500), when Twitter (TWTR) and LinkedIn(LNKD) trade for many multiples of their relatively puny sales, when Salesforce.com mimics Oracle by closing down San Francisco streets for its annual user conference, you know the peak isn't far away. This is when savvy investors run in the opposite direction.

????Odds: 58%.