????众筹公司迎来大年

????借贷俱乐部(LendingClub)将成功上市，应该不会出现太大的波折。但过不了不久，它将感受到一股强烈的反冲气流。如果贷款违约率因经济不景气而上升，贷款人现在获得的天价回报将随之大幅回落，从目前大约9%的平均收益率下挫至5%左右。传统的贷款机构也可能抱怨来自众筹平台的竞争压力，他们会说这种点对点(P2P)的融资方式正在削弱美国公司经典的构筑渠道(即小企业贷款）的长期生存能力。但储贷协会(S&L)和点对点融资平台依然会安然度过今年，尽管后者将面临更加严格的监管。借贷俱乐部在2014年启动IPO的概率是：85%。

????Crowdfunding's big year

????LendingClub will go public in a highly successful, drama-less event. Then will come the blowback. If loan default rates rise because of a stumble in the economy, then the sky-high returns that lenders are getting now may well tumble -- from the current average 9% or so to about 5%. Traditional lending institutions are also likely to grumble about the competition, claiming that peer-to-peer funders are crippling the long-term viability of that classic American company-builder: the small-business loan. But somehow both the S&Ls and P2Ps survive the year, albeit with increased regulation for the latter. Odds of a LendingClub IPO in 2014: 85%.