????民主党依然是参议院多数党

????不断改善的经济形势——前提是不会爆发另一波银行危机——使得共和党执掌参议院的希望变得非常渺茫。2014年，共和党必须从民主党手中抢下6个席位，才能重新夺回参议院。米特?罗姆尼2012年大选期间赢得的7个州出现了这样的机会。但要想全部拿下，共和党只能寄望经济局势在明年秋天变得异常糟糕。这一幕恐怕不会出现。

????概率：71%。

????Democrats will hold the senate

????An improving economy -- scratch this if there's a banking crisis (see "Mis-tapering") -- puts control of the Senate out of reach for the GOP. Republicans have to net six seats to retake the Senate in 2014, and they've got pickup opportunities in seven states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. But to pull off the sweep, the party needs things to be going very badly next fall. Chances are, they won't be.

????Odds: 71%.