石油：看跌

????即使有些人认为2012年油价表现将相当坚韧，油价下跌的可能性仍然很大。是的，2012年石油供应将有所恢复，利比亚石油产量将增加，北海和非洲西部的产量也将企稳。

????但摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）预计需求将会放缓，导致2012年上半年油价出现下跌。该公司预计悲观情形下，明年油价将跌至75美元/桶。

Oil: Bear

????Even if some think oil could prove resilient in 2012, there's still a good possibility the prices will tumble. It's true that oil supplies could recover in 2012 with production picking up in Libya and stabilizing in the North Sea and West Africa.

????But Morgan Stanley sees demand slowing, with prices expected to fall in the first half of 2012. In its bear case, it expects prices to fall to $75 a barrel next year.