Correlation and Causation What are correlation and causation and how are they different? Two or more variables considered to be related, in a statistical context, if their values change so that as the value of one variable increases or decreases so does the value of the other variable (although it may be in the opposite direction). For example, for the two variables "hours worked" and "income earned" there is a relationship between the two if the increase in hours worked is associated with an increase in income earned. If we consider the two variables "price" and "purchasing power", as the price of goods increases a person's ability to buy these goods decreases (assuming a constant income). Correlation is a statistical measure (expressed as a number) that describes the size and direction of a relationship between two or more variables. A correlation between variables, however, does not automatically mean that the change in one variable is the cause of the change in the values of the other variable. Causation indicates that one event is the result of the occurrence of the other event; i.e. there is a causal relationship between the two events. This is also referred to as cause and effect. Theoretically, the difference between the two types of relationships are easy to identify — an action or occurrence can cause another (e.g. smoking causes an increase in the risk of developing lung cancer), or it can correlate with another (e.g. smoking is correlated with alcoholism, but it does not cause alcoholism). In practice, however, it remains difficult to clearly establish cause and effect, compared with establishing correlation. Why are correlation and causation important? The objective of much research or scientific analysis is to identify the extent to which one variable relates to another variable. For example:
These and other questions are exploring whether a correlation exists between the two variables, and if there is a correlation then this may guide further research into investigating whether one action causes the other. By understanding correlation and causality, it allows for policies and programs that aim to bring about a desired outcome to be better targeted. How is correlation measured? For two variables, a statistical correlation is measured by the use of a Correlation Coefficient, represented by the symbol (r), which is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables. The coefficient's numerical value ranges from +1.0 to –1.0, which provides an indication of the strength and direction of the relationship. If the correlation coefficient has a negative value (below 0) it indicates a negative relationship between the variables. This means that the variables move in opposite directions (ie when one increases the other decreases, or when one decreases the other increases). If the correlation coefficient has a positive value (above 0) it indicates a positive relationship between the variables meaning that both variables move in tandem, i.e. as one variable decreases the other also decreases, or when one variable increases the other also increases. Where the correlation coefficient is 0 this indicates there is no relationship between the variables (one variable can remain constant while the other increases or decreases). While the correlation coefficient is a useful measure, it has its limitations: Correlation coefficients are usually associated with measuring a linear relationship. For example, if you compare hours worked and income earned for a tradesperson who charges an hourly rate for their work, there is a linear (or straight line) relationship since with each additional hour worked the income will increase by a consistent amount.
If, however, the tradesperson charges based on an initial call out fee and an hourly fee which progressively decreases the longer the job goes for, the relationship between hours worked and income would be non-linear, where the correlation coefficient may be closer to 0. Care is needed when interpreting the value of 'r'. It is possible to find correlations between many variables, however the relationships can be due to other factors and have nothing to do with the two variables being considered. For example, sales of ice creams and the sales of sunscreen can increase and decrease across a year in a systematic manner, but it would be a relationship that would be due to the effects of the season (ie hotter weather sees an increase in people wearing sunscreen as well as eating ice cream) rather than due to any direct relationship between sales of sunscreen and ice cream. The correlation coefficient should not be used to say anything about cause and effect relationship. By examining the value of 'r', we may conclude that two variables are related, but that 'r' value does not tell us if one variable was the cause of the change in the other. How can causation be established? Causality is the area of statistics that is commonly misunderstood and misused by people in the mistaken belief that because the data shows a correlation that there is necessarily an underlying causal relationship The use of a controlled study is the most effective way of establishing causality between variables. In a controlled study, the sample or population is split in two, with both groups being comparable in almost every way. The two groups then receive different treatments, and the outcomes of each group are assessed. For example, in medical research, one group may receive a placebo while the other group is given a new type of medication. If the two groups have noticeably different outcomes, the different experiences may have caused the different outcomes. Due to ethical reasons, there are limits to the use of controlled studies; it would not be appropriate to use two comparable groups and have one of them undergo a harmful activity while the other does not. To overcome this situation, observational studies are often used to investigate correlation and causation for the population of interest. The studies can look at the groups' behaviours and outcomes and observe any changes over time. The objective of these studies is to provide statistical information to add to the other sources of information that would be required for the process of establishing whether or not causality exists between two variables. Return to Statistical Language Homepage ABS: 1500.0 - A guide for using statistics for evidence based policy By Dr. Saul McLeod, updated 2020 Correlation means association - more precisely it is a measure of the extent to which two variables are related. There are three possible results of a correlational study: a positive correlation, a negative correlation, and no correlation.
ScattergramsA correlation can be expressed visually. This is done by drawing a scattergram (also known as a scatterplot, scatter graph, scatter chart, or scatter diagram). A scattergram is a graphical display that shows the relationships or associations between two numerical variables (or co-variables), which are represented as points (or dots) for each pair of score. A scattergraph indicates the strength and direction of the correlation between the co-variables.  When you draw a scattergram it doesn't matter which variable goes on the x-axis and which goes on the y-axis. Remember, in correlations we are always dealing with paired scores, so the values of the 2 variables taken together will be used to make the diagram. Decide which variable goes on each axis and then simply put a cross at the point where the 2 values coincide. Some uses of Correlations
Correlation Coefficients: Determining Correlation StrengthInstead of drawing a scattergram a correlation can be expressed numerically as a coefficient, ranging from -1 to +1. When working with continuous variables, the correlation coefficient to use is Pearson’s r. The correlation coefficient (r) indicates the extent to which the pairs of numbers for these two variables lie on a straight line. Values over zero indicate a positive correlation, while values under zero indicate a negative correlation. A correlation of –1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, meaning that as one variable goes up, the other goes down. A correlation of +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, meaning that as one variable goes up, the other goes up. There is no rule for determining what size of correlation is considered strong, moderate or weak. The interpretation of the coefficient depends on the topic of study. When studying things that are difficult to measure, we should expect the correlation coefficients to be lower (e.g. above 0.4 to be relatively strong). When we are studying things that are more easier to measure, such as socioeconomic status, we expect higher correlations (e.g. above 0.75 to be relatively strong).) In these kinds of studies, we rarely see correlations above 0.6. For this kind of data, we generally consider correlations above 0.4 to be relatively strong; correlations between 0.2 and 0.4 are moderate, and those below 0.2 are considered weak. When we are studying things that are more easily countable, we expect higher correlations. For example, with demographic data, we we generally consider correlations above 0.75 to be relatively strong; correlations between 0.45 and 0.75 are moderate, and those below 0.45 are considered weak. Correlation vs CausationCausation means that one variable (often called the predictor variable or independent variable) causes the other (often called the outcome variable or dependent variable). Experiments can be conducted to establish causation. An experiment isolates and manipulates the independent variable to observe its effect on the dependent variable, and controls the environment in order that extraneous variables may be eliminated. A correlation between variables, however, does not automatically mean that the change in one variable is the cause of the change in the values of the other variable. A correlation only shows if there is a relationship between variables. While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. Correlation does not always prove causation as a third variable may be involved. For example, being a patient in hospital is correlated with dying, but this does not mean that one event causes the other, as another third variable might be involved (such as diet, level of exercise). Summary
Strengths of Correlations1. Correlation allows the researcher to investigate naturally occurring variables that maybe unethical or impractical to test experimentally. For example, it would be unethical to conduct an experiment on whether smoking causes lung cancer. 2. Correlation allows the researcher to clearly and easily see if there is a relationship between variables. This can then be displayed in a graphical form. Limitations of Correlations1. Correlation is not and cannot be taken to imply causation. Even if there is a very strong association between two variables we cannot assume that one causes the other. For example suppose we found a positive correlation between watching violence on T.V. and violent behavior in adolescence. It could be that the cause of both these is a third (extraneous) variable - say for example, growing up in a violent home - and that both the watching of T.V. and the violent behavior are the outcome of this. 2. Correlation does not allow us to go beyond the data that is given. For example suppose it was found that there was an association between time spent on homework (1/2 hour to 3 hours) and number of G.C.S.E. passes (1 to 6). It would not be legitimate to infer from this that spending 6 hours on homework would be likely to generate 12 G.C.S.E. passes. Download this article as a PDF How to reference this article:McLeod, S. A. (2018, January 14). Correlation definitions, examples & interpretation. Simply Psychology. www.simplypsychology.org/correlation.html Home | About Us | Privacy Policy | Advertise | Contact Us Simply Psychology's content is for informational and educational purposes only. Our website is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. © Simply Scholar Ltd - All rights reserved |
